PDF version (July 2024)
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João Luiz Ayres Queiroz da Silva

Personal Data

​Address:
Research Department
Inter-American Development Bank
1300 New York Ave. NW
Washington, DC 20577

Telephone numbers:
Cell: +1 (612) 545-7936
Office: +1 (202) 623-2677

E-mail: [email protected]

URL: www.joaoayres.com

​Citizenship: Brazil (U.S. permanent resident)
​
​Research Interest

International Economics, Macroeconomics, and Public Finance.

​Education

• ​Ph.D., Economics, University of Minnesota, 2017.

                Dissertation: "Essays in International Economics and Macroeconomics."
                Advisors: Timothy Kehoe (advisor) and Manuel Amador (co-advisor).

• ​M.A., Economics, University of Minnesota, 2015.
• ​D.Sc., Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV/EPGE), 2011.
• ​M.Sc., Economics, Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV/EPGE), 2009.
• B.Sc., Economics, University of Sao Paulo (FEA/USP), 2006.

Employment
​

• 2022-present: ​Economics Senior Specialist, Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
• 2017-2022: ​Economics Specialist, Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
• 2013-2017: Research Analyst, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.​
• 2009-2011: Research Assistant, Getulio Vargas Foundation (EPGE/FGV), Rio de Janeiro-RJ, Brazil.​
• 2003-2004: Intern, Fator Asset Management, Sao Paulo-SP, Brazil.

Visiting Positions

• ​Visiting Researcher, Departamento de Estudos Económicos, Banco de Portugal, June 2017 - July 2017.
• ​Visitor, Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, November 2009 - October 2010.
• Visiting Scholar​, Department of Economics, Columbia University, November 2009 - October 2010.
• Visiting Student​, Umeå University, January 2005 - June 2005.

​Fellowships, Honors, Grants
​

• ​Grant for Visiting Researcher, Departamento de Estudos Económicos, Banco de Portugal, 2017.
• ​Third Prize, Hardy Third Year Paper Competition, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, 2014.
• ​Distinguished Instructor, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Summer 2013.
• Participant,  The Princeton Initiative: Macro, Money and Finance 2013, Princeton. Nominated by the Department of Economics of the University of Minnesota, and selected by the organizers, ​Summer 2013.
• Mudgett Fellowship, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, 2011-2012.
• ​CNPq, Fellowship for Sandwich Doctorate, 2009-2010.
• ​CAPES, Fellowship for Doctorate in Economics, 2008-2011.
• ​CAPES, Fellowship for Masters in Economics, 2007-2008.

​Teaching Experience

• ​Instructor, University of Minnesota. Instructor for undergraduate level course in Cost-Benefit Analysis, Summer 2013.
• ​Teaching Assistant, University of Minnesota. Led recitation sections for graduate level course sequence in    Microeconomic Analysis, ​2012-2013.
• ​Teaching Assistant, University of Minnesota. Led recitation sections for undergraduate level course in Principles of Microeconomics, Summer 2012.
• ​Teaching Assistant, Getulio Vargas Foundation (EPGE/FGV). Led recitation sections in Corporate Finance for the Professional Masters Program in Finance and Business Economics, 2011.
• Teaching Assistant, Getulio Vargas Foundation (EPGE/FGV). Led recitation sections for undergraduate level course sequence in Macroeconomics II, Risk Management, and Futures and Options, 2008-2009.

Peer Reviewed Publications​
​

• "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations," with Gaston Navarro, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro Teles.​ Forthcoming, Journal of Political Economy.
• "Abrubt Monetary Policy Change and Unanchoring of Inflation Expectations," with Daniel Abib, Marco Bonomo, Carlos Carvalho, Stefano Eusepi, Silvia Matos, and Marina Perrupato. Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 145, Article 103576, 2024. (special issue of the 2022 Gerzensee Conference) (previously part of Price Setting when Expectations are Unanchored)
• "Firm Entry and Exit during Recessions," with Gajendran Raveendranathan. Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pp. 47-66, 2023. (previously circulated under the titles The Firm Dynamics of Business Cycles and Firm Exit during Recessions).
• "Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices," with Constantino Hevia and Juan Pablo Nicolini. Journal of International Economics, vol. 122, Article 103261, 2020.
• "Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations," with Gaston Navarro, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro Teles. Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 175, pp. 803-812, 2018.

Book Chapters

• "The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016," with Marcio Garcia, Diogo Guillén, and Patrick Kehoe. Chapter in the book The Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960-2017, eds. Timothy J. Kehoe and Juan Pablo Nicolini, University of Minnesota Press, MN, 2022.

​Working Papers​​​

• "The Nexus of Rollover and Interest Rate Risks in Sovereign Default Models," with Radek Paluszynski. Submitted (previously circulated under the title Multiplicity in Sovereign Default Models: Calvo Meets Cole-Kehoe)
• "Firm Knowledge and International Business Cycles." Reject and resubmit - Journal of International Economics (previously circulated under the title Knowledge Flows and Dark Matter)
• "Mussa meets Backus-Smith: The Role of Primary Commodities," with Constantino Hevia and Juan Pablo Nicolini. Submitted. (previously circulated under the title Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices: Mussa meets Backus-Smith)​​​

​Work in Progress

• "Price Setting when Expectations are Unanchored," with Daniel Abib, Marco Bonomo, Carlos Carvalho, Stefano Eusepi, Silvia Matos, and Marina Perrupato.
• "Labor Income Tax Progressivity with an Informal Sector," with Marcelo Pedroni and Jose Luiz Rossi.

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Presentations

• 2025: World Bank, IEF Workshop, Insper, Midwest Macro, 15th Bretton-Woods Conference.
• 2024: University of Amsterdam, ITAM, IMF, Richmond Fed, Lacea-Lames.
• 2023: SED, CEBRA Workshop for Commodities and Macroeconomics, Chicago Fed, IMF, Federal Reserve Board.
• 2022: Central Bank of Brazil.
• 2021: NBER Conference on International Finance and Macroeconomics (IFM-Spring), FEA-RP/USP, Universidad de los Andes, 2nd International Macro/Finance and Sovereign Debt Workshop, York University.
• 2019: NAWM, University of Houston, PUC-Rio, FGV/EPGE, FGV/IBRE, Midwest Macro, SED, SAET, Lacea-Lames.
• 2018: ESEM, LuBraMacro, Lacea-Lames, MFRI/IADB Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America Conference.
• 2017: IDB, Temple University, PUC-Rio, Insper, Midwest Economic Association (MEA) Annual Meeting, SAET, Banco de Portugal, Portuguese Economic Journal (PEJ) Annual Meeting, Lacea-Lames.
• 2016: SAET.
• ​2015: Minneapolis Fed, Midwest Economic Association (MEA) Annual Meeting.
• ​2009: Lacea-Lames.

Discussions

• "Institutions and Sovereign Default," by Marina Azzimonti and Nirvana Mitra, IMF Sovereign Debt Workshop, May 2025.
• "Superstars or Supervillains? Large Firms in the South Korean Growth Miracle," by Jaedo Choi, Andrei A. Levchenko, Dimitrije Ruzic and Younghun Shim, XXVI Workshop in International Economics and Finance, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Central Bank of Chile, and Universidad Andres Bello, September 2024.
• "Sovereign Default at Home and Abroad," by Aitor Erce, Enrico Mallucci, and Mattia Picarelli, IMF-ECB workshop on Fiscal Policy and Sovereign Debt, IMF, April 2024.
• "A Quantitative Theory of Hard and Soft Sovereign Defaults," by Grey Gordon and Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 3rd International Finance/Macro/Trade Conference, John Hopkins University, Sogang University (Korea), and University of Surrey (UK), February 2024.
• "Exchange Rate Disconnect and Commodity Prices," by Aleksandra Babii and Hussein Bidawi.
  Washington Area International Finance Symposium, IADB, September 2022.
• "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited," by Mark Aguiar, Satyajit Chatterjee, Harold Cole, and Zachary Stangebye, Sovereign Debt Workshop, Richmond Fed, August 2020.

Committee Member

• 2025: IEF Workshop, LACEA-LAMES, SBE.
• 2024: IEF Workshop.
• 2020: IEF Workshop (postponed due to COVID 19).
• 2017: SBE.

Event Organizer

• 2025 IMF/IDB/PUC-Chile/U Chile Conference on Fiscal Policy and Sovereign Debt.
• 2018 MFRI/IDB Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America Conference.

​Referee

Journal of Political Economy, Review of Economic Studies, American Economic Journal: Macro, Journal of Political Economy: Macro, Journal of International Economics, Economic Journal, Review of Economic Dynamics, Economic Theory, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Quantitative Economics, Journal of Banking and Finance, Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Cuadernos Economicos, International Journal of Central Banking, Latin American Journal of Central Banking, International Review of Economics and Finance, Journal of Economics and Business, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Review of World Economics, Revista Brasileira de Economia.

Computer Skills

Fortran, MATLAB, Stata, LaTex.

Languages

English (fluent), Portuguese (native), Spanish (intermediate level).