Peer Reviewed Publications
Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations, with Gaston Navarro, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro Teles.
Journal of Political Economy, vol. 133 (12), pp. 4050-4101, 2025.
Download published version
Latest version: paper
Previous versions: Federal Reserve Board - International Finance Discussion Papers 1370, Minneapolis Fed Working Paper 757
Abrupt Monetary Policy Change and Unanchoring of Inflation Expectations, with Daniel Abib, Marco Bonomo, Carlos Carvalho, Stefano Eusepi, Silvia Matos, and Marina Perrupato.
Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 145, Article 103576, 2024. (special issue of the 2022 Gerzensee Conference)
Download published version
Latest version: SSRN
(previously part of "Price Setting when Expectations are Unanchored")
Firm Entry and Exit during Recessions, with Gajendran Raveendranathan.
Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pp. 47-66, 2023.
Download published version
Latest version: IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-1254
Previous versions: IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-1117, Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-16, McMaster University
(previously circulated under the titles The Firm Dynamics of Business Cycles and Firm Exit during Recessions)
Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices, with Constantino Hevia and Juan Pablo Nicolini.
Journal of International Economics, vol. 122, Article 103261, 2020.
Download published version
Latest version: IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-1063
Previous versions: Minneapolis Fed Staff Report 584, Minneapolis Fed Working Paper 743
Download additional material: slides, codes
Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations, with Gaston Navarro, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro Teles.
Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 175, pp. 803-812, 2018.
Download published version
Previous versions: Minneapolis Fed Working Paper 723
Download additional material: slides, codes
Book Chapters
The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2017, with Marcio Garcia, Diogo Guillén, and Patrick Kehoe
In A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960-2017, ed. Timothy J. Kehoe and Juan Pablo Nicolini
University of Minnesota Press, 2022.
Link to chapter, Link to book
Previous versions: Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2018-66, Minneapolis Fed Staff Report 575, NBER Working Paper No. 25421, CFM Discussion Paper No. CFM-DP2019-02, IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-990
Download additional material: data appendix
Working Papers
The Nexus of Rollover and Interest Rate Risks in Sovereign Default Models, with Radek Paluszynski.
Submitted
October 2025
Download paper
(previously circulated under the title Multiplicity in Sovereign Default Models: Calvo Meets Cole-Kehoe)
Firm Knowledge and International Business Cycles
October 2023
Reject and resubmit - Journal of International Economics
(previously circulated under the title Knowledge Flows and Dark Matter)
Download paper
Mussa Meets Backus-Smith: The Role of Primary Commodities, with Constantino Hevia and Juan Pablo Nicolini.
September 2021
Latest version: Minneapolis Fed Working Paper 781, IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-1281
Previous version: NBER IFM Spring 2021
(previously circulated under the title Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices: Mussa meets Backus-Smith)
Work in Progress
Price Setting when Expectations are Unanchored, with Daniel Abib, Marco Bonomo, Carlos Carvalho, Stefano Eusepi, Silvia Matos, and Marina Perrupato.
Labor Income Tax Progressivity with an Informal Sector, with Marcelo Pedroni and Jose Luiz Rossi.
Discussions
Institutions and Sovereign Default, by Marina Azzimonti and Nirvana Mitra, IMF Sovereign Debt Workshop, May 2025. [slides]
Superstars or Supervillains? Large Firms in the South Korean Growth Miracle, by Jaedo Choi, Andrei A. Levchenko, Dimitrije Ruzic and Younghun Shim, XXVI Workshop in International Economics and Finance, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Central Bank of Chile, and Universidad Andres Bello, September 2024. [slides]
Sovereign Defaults at Home and Abroad, by Aitor Erce, Enrico Mallucci, and Mattia Picarelli, IMF-ECB workshop on Fiscal Policy and Sovereign Debt, IMF, April 2024. [slides]
A Quantitative Theory of Hard and Soft Sovereign Defaults, by Grey Gordon and Pablo Guerron-Quintana,
3rd International Finance/Macro/Trade Conference, Johns Hopkins University, Sogang University (Korea), and University of Surrey (UK), February 2024. [slides]
Exchange Rate Disconnect and Commodity Prices, by Aleksandra Babii and Hussein Bidawi.
Washington Area International Finance Symposium, IADB, September 2022. [slides]
Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited, by Mark Aguiar, Satyajit Chatterjee, Harold Cole, and Zachary Stangebye,
Sovereign Debt Workshop, Richmond Fed, August 2020. [slides]
Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises with Long Stagnations, with Gaston Navarro, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro Teles.
Journal of Political Economy, vol. 133 (12), pp. 4050-4101, 2025.
Download published version
Latest version: paper
Previous versions: Federal Reserve Board - International Finance Discussion Papers 1370, Minneapolis Fed Working Paper 757
Abrupt Monetary Policy Change and Unanchoring of Inflation Expectations, with Daniel Abib, Marco Bonomo, Carlos Carvalho, Stefano Eusepi, Silvia Matos, and Marina Perrupato.
Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 145, Article 103576, 2024. (special issue of the 2022 Gerzensee Conference)
Download published version
Latest version: SSRN
(previously part of "Price Setting when Expectations are Unanchored")
Firm Entry and Exit during Recessions, with Gajendran Raveendranathan.
Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pp. 47-66, 2023.
Download published version
Latest version: IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-1254
Previous versions: IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-1117, Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-16, McMaster University
(previously circulated under the titles The Firm Dynamics of Business Cycles and Firm Exit during Recessions)
Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices, with Constantino Hevia and Juan Pablo Nicolini.
Journal of International Economics, vol. 122, Article 103261, 2020.
Download published version
Latest version: IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-1063
Previous versions: Minneapolis Fed Staff Report 584, Minneapolis Fed Working Paper 743
Download additional material: slides, codes
Sovereign Default: The Role of Expectations, with Gaston Navarro, Juan Pablo Nicolini, and Pedro Teles.
Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 175, pp. 803-812, 2018.
Download published version
Previous versions: Minneapolis Fed Working Paper 723
Download additional material: slides, codes
Book Chapters
The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2017, with Marcio Garcia, Diogo Guillén, and Patrick Kehoe
In A Monetary and Fiscal History of Latin America, 1960-2017, ed. Timothy J. Kehoe and Juan Pablo Nicolini
University of Minnesota Press, 2022.
Link to chapter, Link to book
Previous versions: Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2018-66, Minneapolis Fed Staff Report 575, NBER Working Paper No. 25421, CFM Discussion Paper No. CFM-DP2019-02, IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-990
Download additional material: data appendix
Working Papers
The Nexus of Rollover and Interest Rate Risks in Sovereign Default Models, with Radek Paluszynski.
Submitted
October 2025
Download paper
(previously circulated under the title Multiplicity in Sovereign Default Models: Calvo Meets Cole-Kehoe)
Firm Knowledge and International Business Cycles
October 2023
Reject and resubmit - Journal of International Economics
(previously circulated under the title Knowledge Flows and Dark Matter)
Download paper
Mussa Meets Backus-Smith: The Role of Primary Commodities, with Constantino Hevia and Juan Pablo Nicolini.
September 2021
Latest version: Minneapolis Fed Working Paper 781, IDB Working Paper Series No. IDB-WP-1281
Previous version: NBER IFM Spring 2021
(previously circulated under the title Real Exchange Rates and Primary Commodity Prices: Mussa meets Backus-Smith)
Work in Progress
Price Setting when Expectations are Unanchored, with Daniel Abib, Marco Bonomo, Carlos Carvalho, Stefano Eusepi, Silvia Matos, and Marina Perrupato.
Labor Income Tax Progressivity with an Informal Sector, with Marcelo Pedroni and Jose Luiz Rossi.
Discussions
Institutions and Sovereign Default, by Marina Azzimonti and Nirvana Mitra, IMF Sovereign Debt Workshop, May 2025. [slides]
Superstars or Supervillains? Large Firms in the South Korean Growth Miracle, by Jaedo Choi, Andrei A. Levchenko, Dimitrije Ruzic and Younghun Shim, XXVI Workshop in International Economics and Finance, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Central Bank of Chile, and Universidad Andres Bello, September 2024. [slides]
Sovereign Defaults at Home and Abroad, by Aitor Erce, Enrico Mallucci, and Mattia Picarelli, IMF-ECB workshop on Fiscal Policy and Sovereign Debt, IMF, April 2024. [slides]
A Quantitative Theory of Hard and Soft Sovereign Defaults, by Grey Gordon and Pablo Guerron-Quintana,
3rd International Finance/Macro/Trade Conference, Johns Hopkins University, Sogang University (Korea), and University of Surrey (UK), February 2024. [slides]
Exchange Rate Disconnect and Commodity Prices, by Aleksandra Babii and Hussein Bidawi.
Washington Area International Finance Symposium, IADB, September 2022. [slides]
Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises, Revisited, by Mark Aguiar, Satyajit Chatterjee, Harold Cole, and Zachary Stangebye,
Sovereign Debt Workshop, Richmond Fed, August 2020. [slides]